Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine Prediction of COVID-19 in BRICS Countries: An Integrated Deep Learning Model of CEEMDAN-R-ILSTM-Elman.

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Abstract

Since the outbreak of COVID-19, BRICS countries have experienced different epidemic spread due to different health conditions, social isolation measures, vaccination rates, and other factors. A descriptive analysis is conducted for the spread of the epidemic in the BRICS countries. Considering the nonlinear and nonstationary characteristics of COVID-19 data, a principle of decomposition-reconstruction(R)-prediction-integration is proposed. Correspondingly, this paper constructs an integrated deep learning prediction model of CEEMDAN-R-ILSTM-Elman. Specifically, the prediction model is integrated by complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMDAN), improved long-term and short-term memory network (ILSTM), and Elman neural network. First, the data is decomposed by adopting CEEMDAN. Then, by calculating the permutation entropy and average period, the decomposed eigenmode component IMFs are reconstructed into four sequences of high, medium, low level, and trend term. Thus, ILSTM and Elman algorithms are used for component sequence prediction, whose results are integrated as the final results. The ILSTM is established based on the LSTM model and the improved beetle antennae search algorithm (IBAS). The ILSTM mainly considers that the prediction accuracy of LSTM model is vulnerable to the influence of parameter selection. The IBAS with adaptive step size is used to automatically optimize the super parameters of LSTM model and to improve the modeling efficiency and prediction accuracy. Experimental results indicate that compared with other benchmark models, CEEMDAN-R-ILSTM-Elman integrated model predicts the number of newly confirmed cases of COVID-19 in BRICS countries with higher accuracy and lower error. Strict social policies have a greater impact on the infection rate and mortality rate of the epidemic. During July-August 2021, epidemic spread in BRICS countries will slow down, and the overall situation is still quite severe.Copyright © 2022 Qi Zhao and Zhongtuan Zheng.