Research on runoff process vectorization and integration of deep learning algorithms for flood forecasting.

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Abstract

Accurate multi-step ahead flood forecasting is crucial for flood prevention and mitigation efforts as well as optimizing water resource management. In this study, we propose a Runoff Process Vectorization (RPV) method and integrate it with three Deep Learning (DL) models, namely Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN), and Transformer, to develop a series of RPV-DL flood forecasting models, namely RPV-LSTM, RPV-TCN, and RPV-Transformer models. The models are evaluated using observed flood runoff data from nine typical basins in the middle Yellow River region. The key findings are as follows: Under the same lead time conditions, the RPV-DL models outperform the DL models in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient, root mean square error, and relative error for peak flows in the nine typical basins of the middle Yellow River region. Based on the comprehensive evaluation results of the train and test periods, the RPV-DL model outperforms the DL model by an average of 2.82%-22.21% in terms of NSE across nine basins, with RMSE and RE reductions of 10.86-28.81% and 36.14%-51.35%, respectively. The vectorization method significantly improves the accuracy of DL flood forecasting, and the RPV-DL models exhibit better predictive performance, particularly when the lead time is 4h-6h. When the lead time is 4-6h, the percentage improvement in NSE is 9.77%, 15.07%, and 17.94%. The RPV-TCN model shows superior performance in overcoming forecast errors among the nine basins. The research findings provide scientific evidence for flood prevention and mitigation efforts in river basins.Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.