Prediction of Post-Treatment Visual Acuity in Age-Related Macular Degeneration Patients With an Interpretable Machine Learning Method.

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Abstract

We evaluated the features predicting visual acuity (VA) after one year in neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) patients.A total of 527 eyes of 506 patients were included. Machine learning (ML) models were trained to predict VA deterioration beyond a logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution of 1.0 after 1 year based on the sequential addition of multimodal data. BaseM models used clinical data (age, sex, treatment regimen, and VA), SegM models included fluid volumes from optical coherence tomography (OCT) images, and RawM models used probabilities of visual deterioration (hereafter probability) from deep learning classifiers trained on baseline OCT (OCT0) and OCT after three loading doses (OCT3), fluorescein angiography, and indocyanine green angiography. We applied SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) for machine learning model interpretation.The RawM model based on the probability of OCT0 outperformed the SegM model (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.95 vs. 0.91). Adding probabilities from OCT3, fluorescein angiography, and indocyanine green angiography to RawM showed minimal performance improvement, highlighting the practicality of using raw OCT0 data for predicting visual outcomes. Applied SHapley Additive exPlanations analysis identified VA after 3 months and OCT3 probability values as the most influential features over quantified fluid segments.Integrating multimodal data to create a visual predictive model yielded accurate, interpretable predictions. This approach allowed the identification of crucial factors for predicting VA in patients with nAMD.Interpreting a predictive model for 1-year VA in patients with nAMD from multimodal data allowed us to identify crucial factors for predicting VA.