Multivariate time series short term forecasting using cumulative data of coronavirus.

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Abstract

Coronavirus emerged as a highly contagious, pathogenic virus that severely affects the respiratory system of humans. The epidemic-related data is collected regularly, which machine learning algorithms can employ to comprehend and estimate valuable information. The analysis of the gathered data through time series approaches may assist in developing more accurate forecasting models and strategies to combat the disease. This paper focuses on short-term forecasting of cumulative reported incidences and mortality. Forecasting is conducted utilizing state-of-the-art mathematical and deep learning models for multivariate time series forecasting, including extended susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR), long-short-term memory (LSTM), and vector autoregression (VAR). The SEIR model has been extended by integrating additional information such as hospitalization, mortality, vaccination, and quarantine incidences. Extensive experiments have been conducted to compare deep learning and mathematical models that enable us to estimate fatalities and incidences more precisely based on mortality in the eight most affected nations during the time of this research. The metrics like mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are employed to gauge the model’s effectiveness. The deep learning model LSTM outperformed all others in terms of forecasting accuracy. Additionally, the study explores the impact of vaccination on reported epidemics and deaths worldwide. Furthermore, the detrimental effects of ambient temperature and relative humidity on pathogenic virus dissemination have been analyzed.© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.