Autism spectrum disorder risk prediction: A systematic review of behavioral and neural investigations.

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Abstract

A reliable diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is difficult to make until after toddlerhood. Detection in an earlier age enables early intervention, which is typically more effective. Recent studies of the development of brain and behavior in infants and toddlers have provided important insights in the diagnosis of autism. This extensive review focuses on published studies of predicting the diagnosis of autism during infancy and toddlerhood younger than 3 years using behavioral and neuroimaging approaches. After screening a total of 782 papers, 17 neuroimaging and 43 behavioral studies were reviewed. The features for prediction consist of behavioral measures using screening tools, observational and experimental methods, brain volumetric measures, and neural functional activation and connectivity patterns. The classification approaches include logistic regression, linear discriminant function, decision trees, support vector machine, and deep learning based methods. Prediction performance has large variance across different studies. For behavioral studies, the sensitivity varies from 20% to 100%, and specificity ranges from 48% to 100%. The accuracy rates range from 61% to 94% in neuroimaging studies. Possible factors contributing to this inconsistency may be partially due to the heterogeneity of ASD, different targeted populations (i.e., high-risk group for ASD and general population), age when the features were collected, and validation procedures. The translation to clinical practice requires extensive further research including external validation with large sample size and optimized feature selection. The use of multi-modal features, e.g., combination of neuroimaging and behavior, is worth further investigation to improve the prediction accuracy.
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