A Multitask Learning Approach to Personalised Blood Glucose Prediction.

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Abstract

Blood glucose prediction algorithms are key tools in the development of decision support systems and closed-loop insulin delivery systems for blood glucose control in diabetes. Deep learning models have provided leading results among machine learning algorithms to date in glucose prediction. However these models typically require large amounts of data to obtain best personalised glucose prediction results. Multitask learning facilitates an approach for leveraging data from multiple subjects while still learning accurate personalised models. In this work we present results comparing the effectiveness of multitask learning over sequential transfer learning, and learning only on subject-specific data with neural networks and support vector regression. The multitask learning approach shows consistent leading performance in predictive metrics at both short-term and long-term prediction horizons. We obtain a predictive accuracy (RMSE) of 18.8 2.3, 25.3 2.9, 31.8 3.9, 41.2 4.5, 47.2 4.6 mg/dL at 30, 45, 60, 90, and 120 min prediction horizons respectively, with at least 93\% clinically acceptable predictions using the Clarke Error Grid (EGA) at each prediction horizon. We also identify relevant prior information such as glycaemic variability that can be incorporated to improve predictive performance at long-term prediction horizons. Furthermore, we demonstrate consistent performance – 5% change in both RMSE and EGA (Zone A) – in rare cases of adverse glycaemic events with 1-6 weeks of training data. In conclusion, a multitask approach can allow for deploying personalised models even with significantly less subject-specific data without compromising performance.